Instructions for Writing Papers (Here's a Chinese translation)
Jim Pryor's advice on writing philosophy papers
An Introduction to Bayesian Epistemology
Probability (from Ellery Eells, Probabilistic Causality, Cambridge University Press, 1991, pp. 399-402).
What does a confidence interval mean?
A Note on Confidence Intervals
The Special Consequence Condition of Confirmation
Simpson's Paradox: Sex Discrimination, Smoking, and the Evolution of Altruism
When is altruism fitter than selfishness? A simple example in which groups are of size 2
Two Concepts of Similarity
What Reichenbach Proved about Common Causes
Reichenbach on Simplicity and the Straight Rule
Two Fitness Fallacies
The Evolution of Meiotic Drive in the House Mouse - a Very Simple Model